The population element of the comprehensive plan is the most logical starting point in planning for the future of a community. The population element provides Hart County and Bowersville with an inventory and assessment of trends in population growth or decline and in the demographic characteristics of the population. The population element forms a foundation for the economic development, community facilities, housing and land use elements of the plan.
2.1. Population Trends in Influencing Regions.
Hart County's population should be, and is, considered within the context of population trends in the regions which may influence growth in the County. Table 2-1 provides population figures for 1980 and 1990 and percent growth rates for the past decade, for regions which may have an influence on population growth in the city and county.
Bowersville and Hart County are located in close proximity to the Anderson, South Carolina Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which increased in population by approximately 12,000 persons between 1980 and 1990. Anderson County is the only county within this MSA. It is approximately 25 miles from Hartwell to Anderson, South Carolina. The Anderson MSA had a growth rate of nine percent between 1980 and 1990.
The city and county may also be influenced by the growth of the Athens, Georgia MSA, which as of 1990 included Athens-Clarke County, Jackson County, Madison County and Oconee County. Jackson County has since been dropped from the metropolitan area. Hartwell is approximately 40 miles from downtown Athens. As Table 2-1 indicates, the Athens MSA increased by more than 26,000 persons and had a growth rate of 20.2 percent over the last decade.
Bowersville and Hart County are located within the Georgia Mountains RDC region, which encompasses thirteen counties: Banks, Dawson, Forsyth, Franklin, Habersham, Hall, Hart, Lumpkin, Rabun, Stephens, Towns, Union and White (see Map 1-2). The Georgia Mountains region increased by nearly 60,000 persons and had a growth rate of 24.8 percent during the 1980s. Most of this growth, however, occurred in suburban Forsyth and Hall Counties, which are heavily influenced by the population growth of the Lake Lanier area by in-migration from metropolitan Atlanta.
Counties in the more outlying portions of the region have witnessed smaller growth rates between 1980 and 1990
| AREA |
1980 | 1990 | 1980-1990 |
|
Anderson, SC MSA |
133,235 |
145,196 |
9.0 |
|
Athens, GA MSA |
130,015 |
156,267 |
20.2 |
|
Georgia Mountains RDC |
244,010 |
304,462 |
24.8 |
|
Northeast Georgia RDC |
233,230 |
277,962 |
19.2 |
NOTES:MSA is Metropolitan Statistical Area.
RDC is Regional Development Center.
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. State and Metropolitan
Area Data Book 1991. 1990 Census of Population and Housing. Northeast
Georgia RDC, 1992. Comprehensive Plan, Jackson County, Georgia.
The Northeast Georgia RDC region encompasses ten counties including adjacent Elbert and Madison Counties. This region gained more than 40,000 persons and had a growth rate similar to the Athens MSA over the past decade.
2.2. Population Trends, Hart County, Bowersville and Adjacent Areas.
Table 2-2 provides historic population for Hartwell and Hart County, as well as the Town of Bowersville. Between 1930 and 1970, Hart County's population remained relatively constant, at around 15,500 persons. The growth rate in Hart County was quite significant from 1970 to 1980, at 17.5 percent. Population growth slowed in the 1980s to 6 percent, as indicated in Table 2-3.
Bowersville's population has not changed significantly in the past six decades, remaining consistently near 300 persons.
|
YEAR |
HART COUNTY |
HARTWELL |
BOWERSVILLE |
|
1930 |
15,174 |
2,048 |
271 |
|
1940 |
15,512 |
2,372 |
284 |
|
1950 |
14,495 |
2,964 |
303 |
|
1960 |
15,229 |
4,599 |
293 |
|
1970 |
15,814 |
4,865 |
301 |
|
1980 |
18,585 |
4,855 |
318 |
|
1990 |
19,712 |
4,555 |
311 |
SOURCE:U.S. Bureau of Census, Census of Population and Housing. As reported in The Georgia Guide, 11th Edition, 1992. (University of Georgia, Cooperative Extension Service).
As indicated in Table 2-3, all Georgia counties surrounding Hart County witnessed population growth during the 1980s. The rate of growth, however, varied significantly depending on location. Madison County, part of the Athens MSA, had a growth rate consistent with the State of Georgia. Madison County's growth between 1980 and 1990 was also quite comparable to the Athens MSA growth, by which it is heavily influenced. Franklin County's population growth rate between 1980 and 1990 was 9.6 percent, due in large measure to access to Interstate 85 and significant residential development along Lake Hartwell. Hart County's 1980-1990 growth rate was less than Franklin County (6.1%), perhaps because it witnessed residential growth around Lake Hartwell but is not quite as accessible via Interstate 85. Elbert County, without Interstate access but with substantial lake shoreline on Lake Russell, had only a slightly positive growth rate in the 1980s (one percent). Northeast Georgia Regional Development Center planners indicate Lake Russell has severe development limitations imposed on its shoreline by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This point may further account for differences in population growth rates between Hart and Elbert Counties. The adjacent county seat of Elberton had a stable population between 1980 and 1990 (a very slight decrease). Bowersville witnessed a slightly negative rate of growth over the last decade.
| AREA |
1970 |
1980 |
1970
- 1980 |
1990 |
1980
- 1990 |
|
Bowersville |
301 |
318 |
5.6 |
311 |
-2.2 |
|
Canon |
709 |
704 |
-0.7 |
737 |
4.7 |
|
Elberton |
6,438 |
4,686 |
-11.7 |
5,682 |
-0.1 |
|
Elbert County |
17,262 |
18,758 |
8.7 |
18,949 |
1.0 |
|
Franklin County |
12,784 |
15,185 |
18.8 |
16,650 |
9.6 |
|
Hart County |
15,814 |
18,585 |
17.5 |
19,712 |
6.1 |
|
Hartwell |
4,865 |
4,855 |
-0.2 |
4,555 |
-6.2 |
|
Madison County |
13,517 |
17,747 |
31.3 |
21,050 |
18.6 |
|
Georgia |
4,589,575 |
5,463,000 |
19.0 |
6,478,000 |
18.6 |
|
Royston |
2,428 |
2,404 |
-0.9 |
2,758 |
12.8 |
|
South Carolina |
2,590,516 |
3,122,000 |
20.5 |
3,487,000 |
11.7 |
NOTES:The City of Canon is located in Hart
and Franklin Counties. The City of Royston is located in Hart, Franklin and
Madison Counties.
SOURCE:U.S. Bureau of Census, Census of Population and Housing; State and
Metropolitan Area Data Book 1991; and The Georgia County Guide, 11th
Edition. 1992 (University of Georgia, Cooperative Extension Service).
Based on the past analysis of population trends, some generalizations can be made.
Population change in Hartwell, Bowersville and Hart County does not appear to have been influenced significantly by population growth in surrounding regions. The location of the county is too distant at the present time to receive exurban growth from the Athens MSA, even though Hart County borders on its boundary. Hart County and Bowersville are actually within commuting distance to Athens, however, and near the end of the planning horizon (the year 2015), it is not inconceivable that the city and county population trends could be influenced by metropolitan Athens growth. In fact, planned road improvements are likely to increase accessibility, thereby reducing commute times to Athens and more potential for growth in Hart County.
Hart County and Bowersville are much more likely to be influenced by population growth in Anderson County, South Carolina. Recent population figures indicate that Hartwell and Bowersville have not shared in the growth of the Anderson MSA. The facts that Anderson is in another state, and that you must cross Lake Hartwell to reach Anderson, are potential psychological barriers to the growth of this MSA influencing Bowersville and Hart County. However, if Hart County and Bowersville are to be influenced at all by any regional population patterns, it is likely to be the Anderson, South Carolina MSA growth influences.
A positive growth influence is Interstate 85, as evidenced by population increases in counties where it is located, while Elbert County (without interstate access) has not witnessed significant population growth. Interstate 85 has some marginal growth influence on Hart County, and to a lesser extent, Hartwell. However, because of I-85's location in the extreme northern portion of Hart County, it has not provided the accessibility (and subsequent growth influence) that it has in counties bisected by the highway (Banks, Franklin and Jackson Counties, for instance).
Another positive growth influence is the amenity of having 215 miles of Lake Hartwell shoreline in Hart County. The lake has influenced population growth in adjacent Franklin County, as well as Hart County, because of its desirable location for permanent residential and second home developments. Lake frontage could result in
some positive growth influence in the county. Lake areas in Hart County could receive more
residential growth because the South Carolina side of Lake Hartwell is more developed, with fewer lake lots available for acquisition. In fact, areas around Lake Hartwell presently experience seasonal increases in population, when retired, semi-retired and other persons spend warmer months engaging in recreation on Lake Hartwell. Local sources note that entire residential subdivisions lie vacant until the spring and summer seasons. It is anticipated that many of these "second" or seasonal homes will become permanent as these homeowners retire in Hart County. Therefore, an increase in Hart County's population could occur without any additions to the existing housing stock.
Another factor that could potentially affect population in Hart County is the location of the BMW automobile production plant in the Greenville, South Carolina metropolitan area, and recruitment efforts are underway to locate working households in Hart County. Other factors potentially affecting future population levels in Hart County include the widening of State Route 17 in Hart County and the quality of education in county schools.
There are essentially two major components of population change: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths), and net in-migration (the number of persons migrating into the area minus the number of persons moving out of the community). Municipalities have a third possible component of population change - the annexation of additional property and population into the city.
Hart County's vital statistics for recent years indicate significant fluctuations in the annual amount of natural population increase. The number of births over deaths (natural increase) ranged from six persons in 1985 to 90 persons in 1989. For the total decade of the 1980's, natural increase added 427 persons to Hart County's population.
Table 2-5 compares Hart County's components of population change in the 1980's with surrounding counties. Nearly two-thirds of Hart County's total population increase from 1980 to 1990 is attributed to net in-migration. From 1960 to 1970, Hart County's population declined by 959 persons due to net-migration. From 1970 to 1980, however, Hart County's population increased by 1,747 persons due to net-migration.
Hart County had smaller increases in population due to natural increase than all surrounding counties.Regarding net in-migration, Hart County's net in-migration was less than adjacent Franklin and Madison Counties, which are better geographically poised for growth as indicated in the previous discussion of area population trends. Neighboring Elbert County had a significant loss of population due to out-migration but yet managed to increase in population over the decade due to natural increase.
Census statistics regarding residence in 1985 also reveal some insights to migration patterns in Hart County. Nearly two-thirds (63.2%) of those persons ages five or older in 1990 resided in the same house in 1985. There were almost 4,000 persons (22%) who lived in Hart County in 1985 but in a different residence, 1,757 persons (9.5%) who lived in Hart County in 1990 but a different county in 1985, and more than 1,000 Hart County residents in 1990 (5.7%) who lived in a different state in 1985.
|
YEAR |
TOTAL BIRTHS |
TOTAL DEATHS |
NATURAL INCREASE |
|
1985 |
210 |
204 |
6 |
|
1986 |
241 |
220 |
21 |
|
1987 |
225 |
188 |
37 |
|
1988 |
232 |
225 |
7 |
|
1989 |
282 |
192 |
90 |
|
1985-1989 |
1190 |
1029 |
161 |
|
Total 1985-1989 Average |
238 |
206 |
32 |
|
1980-1989 Total |
2379 |
1952 |
427 |
SOURCE:Georgia Department of Human Resources, 1985-1989. Vital Records and Health Statistics. (Annual Reports) 1980-1989 figures reported in The Georgia County Guide, 1992.
|
COUNTY |
NATURAL INCREASE |
PERCENT |
NATURAL INCREASE |
PERCENT NET MIGRATION |
| Elbert |
914 |
100.0 |
-723 |
0 |
| Franklin |
467 |
31.9 |
998 |
68.1 |
| Hart |
427 |
37.9 |
700 |
62.1 |
| Madison |
1296 |
39.2 |
2007 |
60.8 |
SOURCE:U.S. Census Bureau, Reported In The Georgia County Guide, 1992.
2.5. Population Projections.
In attempting to gauge the future growth of a community, there are generally three ways to estimate future population levels. The first, and most commonly used technique, is a population projection. Typically a population projection is an extension of past population growth trends, and it is an indication of what the community's future population would be if those past trends hold steady into the future.
A second technique is to prepare a population forecast, which differs from a population projection in that it is based on assumptions about what is likely to occur given certain probable circumstances. For instance, if a community knows that a new major industry will locate in its area, or a college will expand its enrollment drastically, then it would not suffice to simply project past trends that did not take into account such factors. In cases where one knows that future conditions will differ substantially from past growth trends, a population forecast is desirable.
A third technique, less commonly employed, is a target population. As opposed to attempting to gauge past population trends and extend them into the future, and rather than basing expected growth figures on a set of assumptions concerning variables influencing future population growth, the target population is an indicator of what the community wants the future population to be.
The figures in Table 2-6 are projections of anticipated growth based predominantly on the natural increase for 1989 and net migration data for the 1980's (See Table 2-5). However, the projections for Hart County rest also on the assumption that the annual average net-migration will be significantly higher over the planning horizon (112 persons annually) than it was from 1980 to 1990 (70 persons increase annually).
Based on the projections in Table 2-6, Hart County's population will increase to nearly 23,500 persons at the end of the planning horizon. This means that Hart County should plan for 3,759 additional persons to reside in the county by the year 2015. The Town of Bowersville is expected to increase by approximately 60 persons over the planning horizon.
|
YEAR |
HART COUNTY |
HARTWELL |
BOWERSVILLE |
| 1991 |
19,941 |
4,598 |
316 |
| 1992 |
20,170 |
4,641 |
321 |
| 1993 |
20,339 |
4,684 |
326 |
| 1994 |
20,628 |
4,727 |
331 |
| 1995 |
20,645 |
4,769 |
336 |
| 1996 |
20,825 |
4,811 |
336 |
| 1997 |
21,005 |
4,853 |
336 |
| 1998 |
21,185 |
4,895 |
336 |
| 1999 |
21,365 |
4,937 |
336 |
| 2000 |
21,544 |
4,977 |
336 |
| 2005 |
22,308 |
5,153 |
353 |
| 2010 |
22,922 |
5,295 |
368 |
| 2015 |
23,471 |
5,422 |
372 |
SOURCE:Georgia Mountains Regional Development Center, 1992.
2.6. Households.
The corresponding figures for Bowersville are provided in Table 2-8, although 1970 figures are not available for very small cities.
Hart County's household population increased by about 1,000 persons from 1980 to 1990. Total households, however, increased by more than 1,100. This large increase in households, despite a less significant increase in household population, is a result of the creation of smaller households. The size of households is generally getting smaller nationwide, and Hart County's declining average household size reflects this trend. The vast majority of the group quarters population in Hart County during 1990 was located in nursing homes within the City of Hartwell.
In contrast, Bowersville lost 28 persons over the decade (all household population). More significantly, Bowersville lost 35 households from 1980 to 1990, and the average household size increased over the decade. This appears to mean that, even though population declined, some smaller households combined with other households (since the decrease in households exceeded the decrease in household population).
| CHARACTERISTIC |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
| Total Household Pop. |
15,758 |
18,326 |
19,390 |
| In Group Quarters |
56 |
259 |
322 |
| Total Households |
4,775 |
6,303 |
7,459 |
| Persons per Household |
3.30 |
2.91 |
2.60 |
NOTE:In 1990, the group quarters population
consisted of 92 persons in correctional institutions, 208 persons in nursing
homes, 18 persons in other institutions, and 4 persons in emergency shelters
for the homeless.
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Census of Population
and Housing, 1970, 1980 and 1990.
Total Household Population 339 311 In Group Quarters 0 0 Total Households 156 121 Persons Per Household 2.17 2.57 NOTE:1980 Census STF-3A figures total more than the 100% count of 318 persons. SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Census of Population and Housing. 1980 and 1990. Tables 2-9 and 2-10 indicate the number of households in 1980 and 1990 by type (number
of persons and "family" versus non-family) for Hart County and Bowersville, respectively. Hart County experienced a significant increase, from 1980 to 1990, in the numbers of one and two person households, while large households (five persons and more) actually declined. One and two person households comprised more than a majority (57.6%) of all households in the county in 1990. Divorces and young adults moving away from home are two reasons for increases in households. The implications of changing household composition or housing needs are that larger units will not be needed as much, while smaller units should be in demand.
Again in contrast, Bowersville has witnessed a rather remarkable decrease in the number of one and two person households, as well as a concurrent decrease in "non-family" households. This is contrary to state and national trends. The number of one-person households were cut in half from 1980 to 1990. Whereas one and two person households comprised two-thirds of all households in 1980, they accounted for slightly more than one-half of total households in Bowersville in 1990.
|
|
1980 |
% |
1990 |
% |
| 1 Person |
1,169 |
18.5 |
1,644 |
22.1 |
| 2 Persons |
1,990 |
31.8 |
2,650 |
35.5 |
| 3 Persons |
1,179 |
18.7 |
1,351 |
18.1 |
| 4 Persons |
1,053 |
16.7 |
1,110 |
14.9 |
| 5 Persons |
458 |
7.3 |
449 |
6.0 |
| 6 or More Persons |
454 |
7.2 |
255 |
3.4 |
| "Family" Households |
5,092 |
80.8 |
5,679 |
76.1 |
| "Non-Family" Households |
1,211 |
19.2 |
1,780 |
23.9 |
| Total Households |
6,303 |
100 % |
7,459 |
100 % |
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Census of Population and Housing, 1980 and 1990.
|
NO. PERSONS IN HOUSEHOLD |
1980 |
% |
1990 |
% |
| 1 Person |
56 |
35.9 |
29 |
24.0 |
| 2 Persons |
48 |
30.8 |
35 |
28.9 |
| 3 Persons |
26 |
16.7 |
30 |
24.8 |
| 4 Persons |
17 |
10.9 |
20 |
16.5 |
| 5 Persons |
7 |
4.5 |
2 |
1.7 |
| 6 or More Persons |
2 |
1.2 |
5 |
4.1 |
| "Family" Households |
100 |
64.1 |
91 |
75.2 |
| "Non-Family" Households |
56 |
35.9 |
30 |
24.8 |
| Total Households 156 100 % 121 |
|
|
|
100 % |
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Census of Population and Housing, 1980 and 1990.
Projections of the number of households are provided in Table 2-11 for Hart County and Table 2-12 for Bowersville. Hart County's population is expected to age substantially over the planning horizon, which typically means that additions to the group quarters population (nursing homes, personal care homes, etc.) will occur. Approximately one out of every ten elderly persons (65 years and more) resided in group quarters in 1990. The projections in Table 2-11 indicate that the percentage of persons in group quarters will increase to 2% of the total population in 1995 and 4% of the total population by the year 2015. This means that 632 additional persons will require group quarters housing in the year 2015 than in 1990. The average household size is anticipated to continue decreasing, consistent with national trends, although not at the pace of decrease witnessed in the 1970's and 1980's.
The household population in Hart County is expected to increase approximately 3,000 persons from the year 1990 to 2015. This will result in nearly 2,783 new households over the planning horizon.
Although Bowersville lost households during the 1980s, the household population is anticipated to increase due to natural population increase and a declining average household size over the next twenty years. Bowersville should plan for an increase of thirty households over the planning horizon.
|
PROJECTION |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Total Household Pop. |
20,232 |
21,005 |
21,639 |
22,120 |
22,532 |
| In Group Quarters |
413 |
539 |
669 |
802 |
939 |
| % in Group Quarters |
2% |
2.5% |
3.0% |
3.5% |
4.0% |
| Persons per Household |
2.50 |
2.40 |
2.30 |
2.25 |
2.20 |
| Total Households |
8,093 |
8,752 |
9,408 |
9,831 |
10,242 |
SOURCE:Georgia Mountains Regional Development Center, 1992.
|
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
|
| Total Household Pop. |
336 |
336 |
353 |
368 |
362 |
| In Group Quarters |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
| Persons per Household |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
| Total Households |
129 |
129 |
141 |
153 |
151 |
SOURCE:Georgia Mountains Regional Development Center, 1992.
2.7. Age Distribution of the Population.
Table 2-13 provides data regarding the ages of Hart County's population by five year age cohorts for 1970, 1980 and 1990. Table 2-14 provides the same figures for Bowersville except that 1970 data were unavailable. Projections are also provided for five year intervals to the year 2015. At least three findings regarding the age of Hart County's population are worthy of note here. First, it appears that the number of very young persons, teenagers, and young working age persons has consistently declined from 1970 to 1990. Local sources confirm that the loss of young persons from Hart County due to employment opportunities elsewhere is an emotional issue. This has important implications in that the younger labor force segment of the population in the county is declining, and insofar as public services demand for the younger population may be in decline (day care centers, schools, youth recreation programs, and so forth).
TABLE 2-13 POPULATION BY AGE CATEGORY 1970 - 2015 HART COUNTY
|
AGE CATEGORY |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| 0 - 4 |
1,487 |
1,337 |
1,346 |
1,395 |
1,340 |
1,215 |
1,075 |
1,020 |
| 5 - 9 |
1,588 |
1,553 |
1,269 |
1,254 |
1,303 |
1,248 |
1,123 |
983 |
| 10 - 14 |
1,686 |
1,704 |
1,391 |
1,182 |
1,167 |
1,216 |
1,161 |
1,036 |
| 15 - 19 |
1,464 |
1,652 |
1,437 |
1,283 |
1,074 |
1,059 |
1,108 |
1,053 |
| 20 - 24 |
1,206 |
1,406 |
1,355 |
1,292 |
1,138 |
929 |
914 |
963 |
| 25 - 29 |
980 |
1,328 |
1,461 |
1,422 |
1,359 |
1,205 |
996 |
981 |
| 30 - 34 |
868 |
1,353 |
1,421 |
1,495 |
1,456 |
1,393 |
1,239 |
1,030 |
| 35 - 39 |
857 |
1,120 |
1,341 |
1,531 |
1,605 |
1,566 |
1,503 |
1,349 |
| 40 - 44 |
849 |
917 |
1,347 |
1,556 |
1,746 |
1,820 |
1,781 |
1,718 |
| 45 - 49 |
939 |
917 |
1,115 |
1,406 |
1,615 |
1,805 |
1,879 |
1,840 |
| 50 - 54 |
854 |
912 |
1,023 |
1,131 |
1,422 |
1,631 |
1,821 |
1,895 |
| 55 - 59 |
827 |
1,030 |
1,044 |
980 |
1,088 |
1,379 |
1,588 |
1,778 |
| 60 - 64 |
672 |
957 |
1,021 |
986 |
922 |
1,030 |
1,321 |
1,530 |
| 65 - 69 |
591 |
879 |
1,083 |
1,033 |
998 |
934 |
1,042 |
1,333 |
| 70 - 74 |
433 |
611 |
759 |
1,067 |
1,017 |
982 |
918 |
1,026 |
| 75 - 79 |
286 |
471 |
611 |
679 |
987 |
937 |
902 |
838 |
| 80 - 84 |
135 |
271 |
375 |
488 |
556 |
864 |
814 |
779 |
| 85+ |
92 |
167 |
313 |
465 |
751 |
1,095 |
1,737 |
2,319 |
| TOTAL |
15,814 |
18,585 |
19,712 |
20,645 |
21,544 |
22,308 |
22,922 |
23,471 |
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Census of Population and Housing 1970, 1980 and 1990. Projections by Georgia Mountains RDC, 1993. (Revised 3/93).
HART COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN POPULATION ELEMENT
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2015 |
| 0 - 4 |
9 |
29 |
30 |
21 |
21 |
23 |
24 |
| 5 - 9 |
30 |
17 |
29 |
30 |
21 |
21 |
23 |
| 10 - 14 |
25 |
19 |
17 |
29 |
30 |
21 |
21 |
| 15 - 19 |
21 |
22 |
19 |
17 |
29 |
30 |
21 |
| 20 - 24 |
10 |
29 |
22 |
19 |
17 |
29 |
30 |
| 25 - 29 |
20 |
17 |
29 |
22 |
19 |
17 |
29 |
| 30 - 34 |
22 |
18 |
17 |
29 |
22 |
19 |
17 |
| 35 - 39 |
23* |
27 |
18 |
17 |
29 |
22 |
19 |
| 40 - 44 |
23* |
21 |
27 |
18 |
17 |
29 |
22 |
| 45 - 49 |
16* |
23 |
21 |
27 |
18 |
17 |
29 |
| 50 - 54 |
17* |
14 |
23 |
21 |
27 |
18 |
17 |
| 55 - 59 |
20 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
21 |
27 |
18 |
| 60 - 64 |
25 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
21 |
27 |
| 65 - 69 |
23* |
18 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
20 |
| 70 - 74 |
24* |
8 |
18 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
| 75 - 79 |
10* |
9 |
6 |
16 |
14 |
10 |
9 |
| 80 - 84 |
11* |
5 |
8 |
5 |
14 |
12 |
8 |
| 85+ |
10 |
9 |
12 |
17 |
20 |
30 |
28 |
| TOTAL |
339** |
311 |
336 |
336 |
353 |
368 |
372 |
* Extrapolated
** 1980 Census STF-3A figures total more than the 100% count of 318 persons.
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Census of Population and Housing, 1980 and 1990.
Projections by Georgia Mountains RDC, 1992.
Second, the middle age segments (30-49) have either held relatively steady or increased slightly.
Third, there has been a substantial increase in the number of retirement-age persons in Hart County from 1970 to 1990. Although this is consistent with the general trend toward an increasing elderly population nationwide, some of this marked increase results from the location of nursing homes within Hartwell. Local sources note that many retirees locating in Hart County are bringing their parents into Hartwell's nursing homes.
Regarding the projected age distribution (Table 2-13), Hart County's elderly population (persons 65 years or more) is expected to increase dramatically from 3,141 (16%) in 1990, to 4,733 persons (21%) in the year 2005, to 6,206 persons (26% of the total population) in the year 2015. This expected increase is attributed to the in-migration of retired persons as well as the general "aging-in-place" of the population. Bowersville's population is not expected to change significantly in age composition due to little if any migration and only modest population increases over the planning horizon (Table 2-14).
An increasing elderly population has broad and important implications, as the passage below indicates:
Changes in the age structure have far-reaching social and economic effects, because older people frequently are no longer active in the labor force and generally have different needs than the rest of the population...The need for additional senior citizen services, such as home health care, recreational centers, specialized housing (such as opportunities for independent living), and transportation will have to be met...Business patterns will also change because of an increase in the older population. As the population matures, businesses traditionally catering to young consumers (such as the fast food industry) will have to change their strategies and marketing to meet the demands of older consumers. New opportunities will arise for those catering to the needs and tastes of an older population because of the different spending habits and buying power of the elderly...In addition, older voters are more likely to be concerned with economic or "pocket book" issues since they are usually living on fixed incomes and may vote accordingly. (Hortense Bates, Allen Moore and Douglas Bachtel. 1986. "Georgia's Changing Age Structure." In Issues Facing Georgia, Volume 2, Number 5, January 1986. University of Georgia Cooperative Extension Service).
Table 2-15 provides racial statistics for the population of Hart County for 1970, 1980 and 1990. Table 2-16 provides race data for Bowersville. The White population has gradually increased, while the Black population declined slightly from 1980 to 1990. The Black population comprised about one-quarter (23.3%) of the total population in 1970 and decreased to about one-fifth (20.3%) of the 1990 county population.
However, local sources note that blacks who previously lived in Hart County are moving back from New York, Atlanta and other areas to retire. Increases in the numbers of persons of other race, have been negligible. Persons of hispanic origin decreased substantially from 1980 to 1990, when hispanic populations have been on the rise elsewhere. There are no reasons to indicate why existing trends in racial composition will not continue in the future. However, persons of hispanic origin are one of the fastest growing population segments in the United States, and it is likely that this population segment (hispanic origin can be of any race) could rise sharply during the planning horizon. Bowersville's population remained about one-fifth black in 1980 and 1990, and no significant changes in the town's racial composition are expected in future years.
Local sources note that a significant community (approximately 40 families) of Koreans resides in Hart County, and that the Korean community could increase to about 350 families in Hart County. This migration of Koreans is identified locally as being comprised of affluent, educated persons from the nation's West coast and members of the "New Start Religious Group."
|
YEAR |
WHITE |
% |
BLACK |
% |
OTHER |
% |
HISPANIC ORIGIN |
| 1970 |
12,121 |
76.6 |
3,684 |
23.3 |
9 |
0.1 |
N/A |
| 1980 |
14,430 |
77.6 |
4,126 |
22.2 |
29 |
0.2 |
200 |
| 1990 |
15,646 |
79.4 |
4,002 |
20.3 |
64 |
0.3 |
76 |
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, Census of Population and Housing.1970, 1980 and 1990.
| YEAR |
WHITE |
% |
BLACK |
% |
OTHER |
% |
HISPANIC ORIGIN |
| 1980 |
265 |
78.2 |
74 |
21.8 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
| 1990 |
243 |
78.1 |
67 |
21.5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
NOTE:1980 Census STF 3-A figures total more
than the 100% count of 318 persons.
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, Census of Population
and Housing. 1970, 1980 and 1990.
Minimum planning standards require a comparison of educational attainment of the community's residents with those of surrounding counties and the State of Georgia. Table 2-17 provides historic median educational levels for Georgia, Hart County and surrounding counties. Table 2-18 provides 1990 educational attainment figures for Georgia, Hart County and surrounding counties. Comparable figures for Bowersville and other municipalities wholly or partly located in Hart County are provided in Table 2-19. In general, Georgia's residents as a whole are better educated than those of Bowersville, Hart County, and counties surrounding Hart County. Some of this is due to the rural characteristics of the region, the lack of higher educational facilities within Hart County, and the large numbers of metropolitan persons skewing this statewide statistic. Bowersville had a higher percentage of persons 25 years and over with a high school diploma or better (62%), but this was still a smaller percentage than that for Georgia as a whole.
|
AREA |
1940 |
1950 |
1960 |
1970 |
1980 |
| Elbert County |
7.5 |
7.7 |
8.6 |
9.7 |
11.0 |
| Franklin County |
7.3 |
7.7 |
8.5 |
9.8 |
10.7 |
| Hart County |
7.1 |
7.7 |
8.8 |
9.6 |
10.8 |
| Madison County |
6.4 |
6.8 |
7.8 |
9.3 |
11.1 |
| State of Georgia |
7.1 |
7.8 |
9.0 |
10.8 |
12.2 |
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Census of Population and Housing. 1940-1980. Reported in The Georgia County Guide, Eleventh Edition, 1992.
(Numbers in Percentages)
|
YEARS COMPLETED |
GEORGIA |
FRANKLIN COUNTY |
HART COUNTY |
MADISON COUNTY |
ELBERT COUNTY |
| Elementary School (0-8) |
12 |
20 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
| High School (9-12) |
17 |
26 |
27 |
22 |
28 |
| High School Graduate |
30 |
29 |
33 |
37 |
34 |
| College (1-3) |
22 |
16 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
| College (4+) |
19 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
| Percent High School Graduate or Higher |
71 |
54 |
57 |
60 |
54 |
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1990 Census of Population and Housing. Summary Tape File 3A.
|
YEARS COMPLETED |
GEORGIA |
BOWERSVILLE |
CANON |
HARTWELL |
ROYSTON |
| Elementary School (0-8) |
12 |
19 |
33 |
23 |
30 |
| High School (9-12) |
17 |
19 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
| High School Graduate |
30 |
37 |
25 |
26 |
21 |
| College (1-3) |
22 |
17 |
12 |
16 |
14 |
| College (4+) |
19 |
8 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
| Percent High School Graduate or Higher |
71 |
62 |
42 |
53 |
44 |
NOTE:Canon is
partially located in Franklin County. Royston is partially located in Franklin
and Madison Counties.
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1990 Census of Population
and Housing.
Somewhat surprisingly, Hartwell's population in 1990 had a lower percentage of persons with a high school education or higher (53%) than did Hart County (57%). Municipal populations are usually better educated than the outlying rural populations, at least for most counties in the Georgia Mountains Region. State standards also require an inventory and assessment of dropout rates, standardized achievements test scores, and high-school graduates attending post-secondary education facilities. Since Bowersville does not operate a city school system, the applicable data for Hart County students are provided in Tables 2-20 through 2-24.
As indicated in Table 2-20, enrollment in recent years in Hart County's public schools has been slowly decreasing, consistent with earlier findings that the younger age population in Hart County is decreasing. The high school dropout rate also decreased significantly from 1985 to 1988, when the rate increased 0.5%. The average dropout rate of 2.2% over these years is not considered alarming.
|
SCHOOL YEAR |
PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT |
PRIVATE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT |
HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUTS (Previous Yr.) |
DROPOUT RATE |
| 1986 - 1987 |
3,381 |
0 |
81 |
2.4 |
| 1987 - 1988 |
3,321 |
0 |
74 |
2.2 |
| 1988 - 1989 |
3,273 |
0 |
55 |
1.7 |
| 1989 - 1990 |
3,237 |
0 |
71 |
2.2 |
SOURCE:State of Georgia Department of Education. In Georgia Descriptions In Data. 1987, 1988,
1989 and 1990-1991. (State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget).
Regarding standardized achievement test scores, Hart County's first graders have consistently scored higher than the state average in recent years on the "Criterion Reference Test (CRT)," as indicated in Table 2-21. Eighth graders in Hart County performed better than the state average on the CRT in three out of five years surveyed.
|
JURISDICTION/YEAR |
FIRST GRADE CRT SCORES |
GRADE CRT SCORES |
| Hart County, 1984 Georgia, 1984 |
417 412 |
410 414 |
| Hart County, 1987 Georgia, 1987 |
456 426 |
422 420 |
| Hart County, 1988 Georgia, 1988 |
455 428 |
426 424 |
| Hart County, 1989 Georgia, 1989 |
445 432 |
420 424 |
| Hart County, 1990 Georgia, 1990 |
442 432 |
433 425 |
SOURCE:State of Georgia Department of Education. In Georgia Descriptions in Data. 1987, 1988,
1989, 1990 and 1991. State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget.
Another measure of educational accomplishments is the Basic Skills Test. Hart County's students have generally fared slightly better on this test in recent years, although there has been fluctuations and differences depending upon the subject, as indicated in Table 2-22. Hart County students have maintained a percentage of students passing equal to, or slightly higher than, the state average in three out of the four years surveyed.
|
YEAR AND SUBJECT |
HART COUNTY |
GEORGIA |
| 1987 Reading |
92 |
91 |
| 1987 Math |
93 |
80 |
| 1987 Writing |
90 |
89 |
| 1987 Average Score |
659 |
655 |
| 1988 Reading |
91 |
90 |
| 1988 Math |
92 |
84 |
| 1988 Writing |
92 |
92 |
| 1988 Average Score |
653 |
654 |
| 1989 Reading |
91 |
93 |
| 1989 Math |
93 |
87 |
| 1989 Writing |
85 |
91 |
| 1989 Average Score |
659 |
659 |
| 1990 Reading |
90 |
93 |
| 1990 Math |
91 |
87 |
| 1990 Writing |
91 |
90 |
| 1990 Average Score |
657 |
660 |
SOURCE:Georgia Department of Education. In The Georgia County Guide, Tenth and
Eleventh Editions (1991 and 1992) University of Georgia, Cooperative Extension Service.
Another important feature regarding education is the number of high school students enrolled in vocational programs. Total enrollment in Hart County High School's vocational programs has continually declined during the 1980s. Agriculture, business and office, and trade and industrial programs have all decreased in enrollment, which could have significant implications in any economic development efforts undertaken by the city and county. The decline in vocational program enrollment in Hart County is attributed locally to the de-emphasis on vocational training by the State's Quality Basic Education (QBE) Program, as well as a lack of local employment opportunities in vocations.
|
VOCATIONAL PROGRAM |
1985-1986 |
1986-1987 |
1987-1988 |
| Agriculture |
109 |
103 |
72 |
| Marketing Education |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Health Occupations |
101 |
77 |
93 |
| Home Economics |
290 |
270 |
141 |
| Industrial Arts |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Guidance |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Business and Office |
401 |
344 |
293 |
| Trade and Industrial |
518 |
471 |
470 |
| Total Enrollment |
1,419 |
1,265 |
1,069 |
SOURCE:State of Georgia Department of Education. In Georgia Descriptions in Data. 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990 and 1991. State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget.
The number of high school graduates in Hart County, during the three years for which data were available, remained steady, as indicated in Table 2-24. The number of graduates continuing on to college ranged in percentages from 14 percent to 18 percent of all graduates. A smaller percentage of graduates do continue on to vocational school. The majority of students, however, appear to prefer full-time employment, or at least they did so in the 1985 to 1987 school years. Relatively small percentages of high school graduates were unemployed in these years.
|
DESTINATION |
1985-1986 |
1986-1987 |
1987-1988 |
| High School Graduates |
200 |
207 |
198 |
| Entering College |
36 |
33 |
28 |
| Vocational School |
16 |
18 |
14 |
| Employed Full Time |
111 |
36 |
47 |
| Military Service |
5 |
15 |
9 |
| Unemployed |
13 |
0 |
4 |
SOURCE:State of Georgia Department of Education. In Georgia Descriptions in Data. 1987, 1988 and 1990. (State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget).
In sum, the data reveal Hart County's educational attainment is comparable with surrounding counties but significantly lower than the state average. Bowersville's educational attainment in 1990 was slightly higher than Hart County's. Educational services and the need for education for employment opportunities is addressed in subsequent chapters of the plan.
With the exception of the decennial census, most sources of income data only report for counties. Table 2-25 compares historic median family incomes of Hart County with Georgia and surrounding counties. Table 2-26 provides yearly per capita income figures for Hart County in comparison with the State of Georgia. Hart County's per capita income in 1980 was only 80.5% of the State's per capita income. Over the years, with only limited fluctuation, Hart County has consistently improved its income standing in relation to Georgia, to 90.3% of the state's per capita income in 1989. This is a positive sign in that Hart County residents are slowly closing the income differential. Per capita income figures for Bowersville and Hart County are compared with Georgia's in Table 2-27.
|
AREA |
1949 |
1959 |
1969 |
1979 |
1989 |
| Elbert County |
1,465 |
3,483 |
6,400 |
14,501 |
24,070 |
| Franklin County |
979 |
2,917 |
6,423 |
13,886 |
27,517 |
| Hart County |
1,040 |
3,256 |
6,649 |
14,688 |
27,561 |
| Madison County |
1,111 |
2,709 |
7,000 |
14,393 |
30,065 |
| State of Georgia |
1,898 |
4,208 |
8,165 |
17,844 |
33,529 |
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Census of Population and Housing. 1950-1990.
|
YEAR |
HART COUNTY |
GEORGIA |
HART CO. % OF GEORGIA TOTAL |
| 1980 |
6,473 |
8,041 |
80.5 |
| 1981 |
7.316 |
8,968 |
81.6 |
| 1982 |
7,790 |
9,639 |
80.8 |
| 1983 |
8,662 |
10,419 |
83.1 |
| 1984 |
10,188 |
11,793 |
86.4 |
| 1985 |
10,718 |
12,619 |
84.9 |
| 1986 |
11,555 |
13,508 |
85.5 |
| 1987 |
12,429 |
14,323 |
86.8 |
| 1988 |
13,388 |
15,268 |
87.7 |
| 1989 |
14,501 |
16,050 |
90.3 |
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1980-1983 figures reported in The Georgia County Guide, Seventh Edition, 1988. 1984-1989 figures reported in The Georgia County Guide, Eleventh Edition, 1992. (University of Georgia, Cooperative Extension Service)
Hartwell's per capita income was higher than Hart County's in 1979, but then dropped
significantly below Hart County's in 1989, as indicated in Table 2-27. Hartwell's 1989 per capita income was only 69.5% of Georgia's 1989 per capita income. It thus appears that, while Hart County closes the income differential between it and the state, the gap may be widening between Hartwell residents and those of Georgia as a whole.
|
AREA |
1969 |
1979 |
1989 |
| Bowersville |
- |
4,371* |
10,000** |
| Hartwell |
- |
5,701 |
9,475 |
| Hart County |
2,031 |
5,661 |
11,187 |
| Georgia |
2,649 |
6,402 |
13,631 |
* Persons 15 years and over
** Estimated
SOURCE:U.S. Census of Population and Housing. 1970, 1980 and 1990.
Table 2-28 indicates the income of Hart County's households by income groupings, as well as median income figures. Bowersville's data are presented in Table 2-29. Again, these median income figures do not compare favorably with those of Georgia as a whole.
| INCOME GROUPING |
HOUSEHOLDS |
FAMILIES |
NON-FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS |
| Less than $5,000 |
590 |
205 |
410 |
| $ 5,000 - 9,999 |
868 |
469 |
411 |
| $ 10,000 - 14,999 |
870 |
609 |
262 |
| $ 15,000 - 24,999 |
1,470 |
1,085 |
378 |
| $ 25,000 - 34,999 |
1,605 |
1,373 |
221 |
| $ 35,000 - 49,999 |
1,068 |
972 |
83 |
| $ 50,000 - 74,999 |
704 |
649 |
55 |
| $ 75,000 - 99,999 |
126 |
119 |
- |
| $100,000 - 149,999 |
99 |
97 |
2 |
| $150,000 or more |
53 |
53 |
- |
| TOTAL NUMBER |
7,453 |
5,631 |
1,822 |
| MEDIAN ($) |
$24,333 |
$27,561 |
$12,103 |
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1990 Census of Population and Housing. Summary Tape File 3-A.
| INCOME GROUPING |
HOUSEHOLDS |
FAMILIES |
NON-FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS |
| Less than $5,000 |
20 |
7 |
13 |
| $ 5,000 - 9,999 |
12 |
2 |
10 |
| $ 10,000 - 14,999 |
6 |
6 |
- |
| $ 15,000 - 24,999 |
27 |
17 |
10 |
| $ 25,000 - 34,999 |
20 |
20 |
- |
| $ 35,000 - 49,999 |
19 |
19 |
- |
| $ 50,000 - 74,999 |
4 |
4 |
- |
| $ 75,000 - 99,999 |
2 |
2 |
- |
| $100,000 - 149,999 |
2 |
- |
2 |
| $150,000 or more |
2 |
2 |
- |
| TOTAL NUMBER |
114 |
79 |
35 |
| MEDIAN ($) |
$21,667 |
$29,250 |
$6,496 |
SOURCE:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1990 Census of Population and Housing. Summary Tape File 3-A.
2.11. Population Distribution Within Hart County.
Table 2-30 indicates the distribution of Hart County's population according to four census divisions, which are indicated on Map 2-1.
Insert Map 2-1: Hart County Census Division
|
NAME OF DIVISION |
AREA OF COUNTY |
1990 POPULATION |
% OF TOTAL |
PERSONS PER SQUARE MILE |
| Bowersville |
Northwest |
2,369 |
12.0 |
50.6 |
| Royston |
Southwest |
2,450 |
12.4 |
107.4 |
| Hartwell |
Southeast |
10,736 |
54.5 |
66.9 |
| Reed Creek |
Northeast |
4,157 |
21.1 |
85.0 |
| Total 19,712 |
100 |
84.9 |
|
|
Source:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1990 Census of Population and Housing.
Summary Population and Housing Characteristics.
Table 2-31 indicates the distribution of population according to unincorporated and incorporated areas. The City of Hartwell comprised 23% of Hart County's population in 1990, while unincorporated areas accounted for 72% of the county's population.
|
AREA |
1990 POPULATION |
% OF TOTAL |
PERSONS PER SQUARE MILE |
| Town of Bowersville |
311 |
1.6 |
100.3 |
| City of Canon |
37 |
0.2 |
74.0 |
| Hartwell |
4,555 |
23.1 |
1167.9 |
| Royston |
635 |
3.2 |
488.5 |
| Unincorporated |
14,174 |
71.9 |
N/A |
| Total |
19,712 |
100 |
84.9 |
Source:U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1990 Census of Population and Housing.
Reported in The Georgia County Guide, 1992 (Eleventh Edition). (University of Georgia Cooperative Extension Service).
As indicated in the previous section, much of the population exists within the area of Hart County in and around the City of Hartwell and in the vicinity of Lake Hartwell. Outside of these areas and the City of Royston, unincorporated Hart County is largely characterized by sparse population and rural and agricultural land uses.
Hart County has a rather unique opportunity, even without land use restrictions, to preserve the rural, agricultural character of these non-urban areas. Land markets generally favor locations with satisfactory utilities (public water and sanitary sewer, roads, etc.) and amenities (such as recreational opportunities provided by Lake Hartwell).
However, future population growth could occur in all areas of the county, and there are distinct advantages from a public service standpoint to concentrate future development within a defined urban growth area, rather than "sprawled" or "scattered" development in all sections of the county.
For reasons of preserving rural character in remote areas of Hart County, and to provide public facilities and services in the most efficient manner possible, the Hart County Comprehensive Plan establishes an urban growth boundary and the following growth management policy.
The Hart County Comprehensive Plan encourages new urban development (defined as all
development except agricultural land uses, residential land uses with densities of less than one unit per three acres, and institutional/rural convenience commercial uses needed to support the rural population) to locate within the urban growth areas as indicated on Map 2-2 and as also designated on the Future Land Use Plan 2015. The urban growth areas are sections of Hart County where growth is encouraged and outside of which only "non-urban" and rural growth should occur.
The urban growth areas are defined geographically by an urban growth boundary, which is a line on the maps marking the separation of more dense and urban development from rural, agricultural lands. The urban growth boundary was established after careful consideration of existing development patterns, existing population densities, locations of environmentally sensitive areas, transportation accessibility, and
future plans of local governments for the provisions of water, sewer, roads, and other infrastructure (boundary not yet defined). The urban growth areas include the existing urban development locations and an urban reserve area. The urban reserve area consists of properties contiguous to urban areas which are anticipated to be needed for future development and within which the Comprehensive Plan supports the extension of urban services (water, sewer, roads, parks, etc.). Urban services are not planned for extension outside the urban growth areas of Hart County at any time during the planning horizon (the year 2015).
Establishment of the urban service area is not to be construed as limiting low density residential development and non-residential development serving rural areas.
Insert Map 2-2:Urban Growth Areas, Hart County
